Cotton Bowl Preview: Missouri vs. Arkansas

AT&T Cotton Bowl
Jan. 1, 8:30 a.m. PST
Missouri (11-2) vs. Arkansas (8-4)
Dallas, Texas
Payout: $3,000,000
Spread: Missouri – 3.5

The 2007 Missouri team is similar to the 2006 Wisconsin team in that they only lost one game to a highly ranked opponent and yet was left out of the BCS mix. In fact, if there weren’t a conference championship game in the Big 12, Missouri would be playing for the national championship against Ohio State. They certainly don’t have a national title caliber defense, but the spread offense is methodical and can light up the scoreboard with the best of them. In Arkansas they’ve found one of those teams. Both teams rank in the top 10 in scoring offense and the top 20 in total offense. Arkansas has a fairly different approach from the pass oriented Missouri team but due to a dynamic duo at running back, it is no less effective. This should be a fun way to get rid of that awful new years hangover. If you’re on the west coast, you may as well just stay up and keep drinking.

Arkansas might come with the second billing in this game but running back Darren McFadden is the best in the country. Any team that passes on him in the upcoming NFL draft will feel like those who passed on Adrian Peterson last year. McFadden is good enough to start for several NFL teams right now and the Arkansas offense does its best to exploit all of his talents, using him at quarterback to lessen the burden on starter Casey Dick. McFadden isn’t a precise passer, but his ability to throw the ball keeps the secondary in coverage. The Missouri defense has faced some powerful offenses this year, including Oklahoma twice. That along with their quick-score offense has skewed their defensive stats somewhat. That said, nobody’s been able to keep McFadden and backup Felix – don’t call me a backup – Jones in check all season. The two should have a big day against Missouri and keep them in the game until the very end.

Unfortunately for Arkansas, head coach Houston Nutt is gone and new coach Bobby Petrino isn’t there yet. Interim coaches rarely have success, in this case it’s defensive coordinator Reggie Herring. He’s known for his aggressive style and playing tight man coverage on the outside. In this game against a quarterback with the skills of Missouri’s Chase Daniel, that could be their demise.

Daniel, a Heisman finalist, threw for 4,170 yards, 33 TD’s and 10 interceptions while completing 69 percent of his passes. He doesn’t just key in on one man though as six players have at least 37 receptions. Tight ends Chase Coffman and Martin Rucker are two of the best in the Big 12 and are used as much as any in the nation. The game breaker is Jeremy Maclin. Just a freshman, Maclin has 15 total TD’s. He leads the team in receiving yards, is second in rushing and is one of the top return men in the country. He is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball and Missouri tries to get him as many touches as possible. Arkansas won’t be able to shut down this offense. If they ignore the running game, Tony Temple will have enough running room to break off big runs. Despite only getting more than 20 carries twice this year and sitting out a few games due to injury he has run for 758 yards and 8 TD’s. The Arkansas defense has to take him into account or he’ll slowly chip away yardage and time.

Missouri could be playing in the national championship game right now, Arkansas doesn’t really have a head coach. The difference will be on the scoreboard, but it won’t be much.

Prediction:
Missouri 49 – Arkansas 45

Outback Bowl Preview: Wisconsin vs. Tennessee

Outback Bowl
Jan. 1, 8 a.m. PST
Wisconsin (9-3) vs. Tennessee (9-4)
Tampa, Florida
Payout: $3,100,000
Spread: Tennessee – 2

For all the flack the Big 10 catches about being overrated and slow compared to the SEC, here’s two teams that bucked the “trend” last year. Tennessee lost to Penn State in the Outback Bowl and Wisconsin beat Arkansas in the Capitol One Bowl. So is the Big 10 really overrated and slow? Maybe, but not at Wisconsin. The Badgers have speed all over the field and will remind Tennessee of the Cal game earlier in the season.

Tennessee is in a difficult position preparing for this game. Two assistant coaches have already taken jobs at different schools but will remain with the Vols through the bowl game. Several starters were also declared academically ineligible, including weak-side linebacker Rico McCoy, defensive tackle Demonte’ Bolden and leading receiver Lucas Taylor. Amid all of this uncertainty, head coach Phillip Fulmer might have a hard time getting his players adequately prepared for a team as good as Wisconsin.

At the start of the season many thought Wisconsin would be a national championship contender. Injuries derailed those hopes and a few poor performances derailed those hopes. They can still record their third consecutive 10-win season and a win over the Volunteers would go a long way to restoring faith in the Big 10. Tailback PJ Brown is healthy but won’t get the start. Instead true freshman Zach Brown, who is more of a speed guy, will start in his place. Also expect sophomore Lance Smith to take a few carries. The Badgers will try to win this game on the ground and with the ability to use three different players with different styles, they’ll be able to keep Tennessee off balance. The Volunteer run defense wasn’t a great one to begin with. Losing Bolden and McCoy really hurts. Linebacker Jerod Mayo will show off his talent but without Bolden’s big body in the middle he might get caught up in the wash and get taken out of a number of plays.

UW quarterback Tyler Donovan is a pretty good athlete and he’s another reason the Vols will miss McCoy. McCoy’s athleticism would’ve helped in tracking down Donovan when he gets out of the pocket. Donovan isn’t a great passer though and if the Badgers have to throw the ball to win this game they’ll lose. Tennessee has a number of good athletes in the defensive backfield but the loss of Demetrice Morley this year really hurt. They’ve been forced to play younger players and some good has come out of that. True freshmen Brent Vinson and Eric Berry have shown flashes of pro-potential, but they’ve also shown their inexperience. Donovan might be able to take advantage of that if the running game is able to move the sticks. Play action passes to versatile tight end Travis Beckum could be a back breaker for Tennessee.

Tennessee’s offense also relies on a steady ground game but have a far better passing game to complement it. Arian Foster is the workhorse. He’s 225 lbs and has run for 1,162 yards and 12 TD’s but if not for quarterback Erik Ainge the offense would be anemic. Ainge has thrown for 3,157 yards, 29 TD’s and only 10 interceptions while completing 63 percent of his passes. Without leading receiver Lucas Taylor, Ainge will have to be comfortable completing passes to a less inspiring group of receivers. Austin Rogers and Josh Briscoe will shoulder the load but tight end Chris Brown’s contribution might be the difference.

Wisconsin has given up some points this year. They can’t afford for that to happen in this game because they don’t have an offense that can keep up if this turns into a shootout. Corner Jack Ikegwuonu will have to take away one side of the field altogether. If Ainge is able to work the whole field he’s smart enough to get rid of the ball and avoid sacks but the Wisconsin linebacking corps has good speed and might be able to force some turnovers. This Badger defense has potential to be the best in the country next year if everyone comes back. Tennessee will need to come out firing on all cylinders to beat them.

Wisconsin, if they don’t need Tyler Donovan to win the game for them, should grind out a close, relatively low scoring victory. Next season they’ll be taking another run at the Big 10 championship while Phillip Fulmer tries yet again to hang onto his job at Tennessee.

Prediction:
Wisconsin 20 – Tennessee 17

Rush and Iceman Prevail To End 2007 With a Bang

On a night where there were basically two main events, UFC 79: Nemesis did not disappoint.

Canada’s own George ‘Rush’ St. Pierre dominated highly touted Matt Hughes to move a step closer in retaining his welterweight championship title. On the other hand, Chuck ‘The Iceman’ Liddell went toe-to-toe for three rounds with Wanderlei ‘The Axe Murderer’ Silva before claiming victory by a unanimous decision. 

GSP came out motivated and focused to beat one of the greatest welterweights of the sport, Hughes. From the get-go, the Montreal native attacked Hughes as he took the 34-year-old down two minutes in. The first round saw GSP on top, not allowing much offense from the two-time 170-pound division champion. Then in the second, GSP, who was sporting a fleur-de-lis on his blue trunks, took Hughes down with a slick judo throw and applied the armbar. Thus, causing Hughes (43-6) to verbally submit.

“I think Georges St. Pierre has the potential to be the greatest 170-pounder ever,” said trainer Greg Jackson. “He’s just phenomenal. The scary thing is he keeps getting better.” 

GSP will now face Matt Serra to determine the title holder for real in Montreal on April 19 at the Bell Centre. Serra, who was slated to fight Hughes in defense of his gold, injured his back during practice. Therefore, St. Pierre and Hughes fought for contendership. The last time Serra and St. Pierre met, “The Terror” upsetted the 26-year-old to capture his first welterweight championship.

St. Pierre (15-2) made Canada proud, as chants of GSP could be heard throughout Mandalay Bay Events Centre, and even at the Shark Club in downtown Vancouver. Not bad for the most recognized UFC fighter north of the border, and I’m sure he’ll be pumped to be able to fight for the gold in his hometown.

The other high profile battle on the fight card ended as a bloodbath. Yes, Silva was sent to the hospital after the match for a CAT scan.

It was no surprise as the match saw both crazed-maniacs throw punch after punch at each other, yet failing to knockout the opponent. The match lasted for three rounds, with the result decided by the judges. The UFC president had three words to describe the brawl.

“A great fight,” said Dana White, who spent six years trying to make the matchup of these two former UFC and Pride champions. 

The Liddell-Silva fight basically stole the show. Even light-heavyweight champion Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson and middleweight title holder Anderson ‘The Spider’ Silva were on their feets cheering the duo on. Both of these men came in having lost their last two matches, but the in-media trash talking drew up the hype for this light-heavyweight fight.

Both men had chances to finish their opponents off, as Liddell (21-5) fell twice, once due to slipping and the other punch related. Silva failed to capitalize on those opportunities, as the Brazilian usually would have taken advantage in those situation. On the other hand, a bloodied Silva was cornered against the cage a few times, yet the fast-fist-flying 38-year-old failed to end the fight and put ‘The Axe Murderer’ out.

When asked why later, Liddell said, “Because he’s a tough man.” 

That was indeed a true statement as Silva absorbed punch after punch, and threw some counter jabs of his own. It was indeed a match to remember, as the excitement and entertainment level was intense.

The other winners of the night included the undefeated Brazilian Lyoto Machida (12-0), who submitted the highly praised light-heavyweight Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (4-2) in the second round with an arm triangle hold. The worst part for the Cameroon fighter was that it was his UFC debut.

It was a night that started with bitterness, as Rich Clementi forced hated rival Melvin Guillard to tap out from a rear naked choke in the first round. ‘The Young Assassin’ tried to charge ‘No Love’, who taunted him after the match, but had to be refrained by security. 

In the end, fans went home satisfied as the UFC ended the year with entertainment and bloodshed not matched by any other sport. It was definitely not for the faint of heart.

Absolutely Perfect

The New England Patriots defeated the New York Giants 38-35 in one of the most exciting and competitive games of the season from East Rutherford, N.J. as they achieved a perfect 16-0 regular season record.

Give the Giants and fourth-year quarterback Eli Manning (who completed 22 of 32 passes for 251 yards and four touchdown receptions) credit because they fought tooth and nail and pushed the Patriots defence and offensive weapons Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Laurence Maroney to make big plays and key points in the game, which Bill Belichick’s squad did and that is why they went undefeated all season.

New England is also the first team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins to enjoy a perfect season, which is a feat in itself.  That being said, the most impressive quality about the 2007 New England Patriots is just how they went about being a perfect team.

Individually, the Patriots were dominant and all four of the new NFL single-season records walk hand-in-hand with the individual performances of Moss, Brady, Maroney and the diminutive, yet explosive Wes Welker who caught 112 passes for 1,175 yards on the season.  

On a night when the main focus was on achieving a perfect regular season record, Brady broke the NFL record for most touchdown passes in one season by connecting 49 times with his receivers in the end-zone.  Moss broke the NFL single-season record for most touchdown receptions with 23, surpassing Jerry Rice’s 22 touchdowns.  As a team, the Patriots set the single-season record for points scored in a season with 589, surpassing the 1998 Minnesota Vikings who recorded 556 points that year.

Not only did the Pats set four single-season records to solidify their perfect season, but they led the league in total yards per game with 411.2 and passing yards per game with 295.7. 

If there is one question mark with this team going into the playoffs, it will be their defence.  Defence wins championships, but it may just be said that Belichick’s theory of defence is that the best defence is a great offence.  It is hard for opposing teams to score points when their offence is kept off the field by Brady and the various offensive weapons he has to choose from.

One point worth making as the NFL regular season comes to a close and the real football begins, is that not a whole lot of people wanted the Patriots to achieve a 16-0 record.  At The Point in Port Moody, B.C. last night, the majority of football fans there wanted to see the Giants pull off the upset, which they almost did anyways. 

It seems like a bit of a sad commentary on the sporting world when the fans that go to the games, the pubs and watch the NFL from their living room television want to see a team not achieve perfection.  Some of that has to do with the spygate controversy from earlier in the season, but once Belichick was disciplined for his deception, his team simply went on a tear and systematically picked apart their opposition.

Whether you like the Patriots or not, you have to give them every ounce of respect you can for this team.  They went 16-0 and did it in such a dominating fashion that the exclamation point may not be able to fit Gillette Stadium.

Now that the Pats have achieved their perfect season, they turn their attention to the Super Bowl.  As impressive as their season was, it would be even more impressive if they went on to the win the prize that really matters. 

Now, the new season begins and the Patriots, like the the other 11 teams that will compete for the Super Bowl, are one loss away from elimination.

Humanitarian Bowl Preview: Fresno State vs. Georgia Tech

Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl
Dec. 31, 11 a.m. PST
Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Boise, Idaho
Payout: $750,000
Spread: Georgia Tech – 4.5

One has to wonder about Georgia Tech’s approach to this game. For one, the game is in Idaho, 2,000 miles from home. They’ve also just had their head coach fired. Chan Gailey, after six mediocre seasons and six losses to arch-rival Georgia, was canned. Interim coach and defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta was given the chance to lead the team into the bowl, but how the team will respond is unknown. The weather will also play a factor as it’s expected to be in the thirties. Fresno State will be used to the cold atmosphere of Boise, thanks to conference rival Boise State, but the Yellow Jackets rarely play in such cold weather. One has to wonder if they will be motivated enough to win this game.

Fresno State, on the other hand, missed out on bowl season altogether last year and should be happy to crash the party once again. Talent wise they look over matched and since running the ball is their forte, they’ll be in trouble against a tenacious Georgia Tech front seven. It doesn’t help that a trio of Fresno runners are trying to recover from injuries. Ryan Matthews is said to be out of the lineup while Lonyae Miller and all-purpose back Clifton Smith are still working their way back to 100 percent. Smith is third on the team in receptions and rushing. He’ll give Tech linebackers fits in the open field if he’s able to contribute. Sophomore Anthony Harding has stepped up in their absence, running for over 100 yards in the final two games of the year.

Georgia Tech’s front seven, if they show up to play, should dominate the point of attack and put the game in the hands of Fresno QB Tom Brandstater. Brandstater has improved significantly from last season. He had his best game of the year in a win over Kansas State where he threw for 313 yards, 2 TD’s and no interceptions while completing 79 percent of his passes. If he has a repeat performance against Georgia Tech, they’ll win this game handily. The Tech secondary doesn’t need to force turnovers, which is good because they haven’t been able to this year, but they do need to keep everything in front of them because a big play in a game like this is demoralizing and may send Tech into a downward spiral.

I’m not sure what to expect from the Georgia Tech offense. Some have said freshman quarterback Josh Nesbitt will see time over incumbent Taylor Bennett. After last year’s Gator Bowl Bennett gave hope for an improved Tech passing game, but he has fared little better than his often criticized predecessor Reggie Ball. For incoming head coach Paul Johnson’s triple option offense, Nesbitt would be a far better fit. His athleticism gives the Jackets an extra dimension on offense for teams to prepare for. The Fresno State defense doesn’t have the horses to compete with an offense like that, but if the Jackets remain one-dimensional and stick to the ground game with Tashard Choice, the Bulldogs will stick around and have a shot at winning.

There’s no reason for Georgia Tech to lose this game other than their own lack of concentration. If they’re prepared and show up to play they can win easily, if not, it’s the 2002 Sillicon Valley Classic all over again when the Jackets were six point favorites and lost 30-21. I think the smothering front seven of Georgia Tech will be too much for Fresno’s running game and while Brandstater might keep things close, he won’t open it up enough to pull off the upset.

Prediction:
Georgia Tech 13 – Fresno State 6

Music City Bowl Preview: Florida State vs. Kentucky

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Dec. 31, 1 p.m. PST
Florida State (7-5) vs. Kentucky (7-5)
Nashville, Tennessee
Payout: $1,600,000
Spread: Kentucky – 3.5

This game bares some similarities to the Champs Sports Bowl between Michigan State and Boston College. One of the top senior quarterbacks in the nation will face a defense depleted by suspensions.

Kentucky QB Andre Woodson should have a big day. Despite running the gauntlet that is the SEC schedule, Woodson threw for 3,351 yards, 36 TD’s and just 10 interceptions. Even with WR Keenan Burton doubtful for the game, he still has three players with over 50 receptions to throw to. WR’s Steve Johnson and Dicky Lyons as well as tight end Jacob Tamme have had excellent years. Running back Rafael Little is also a threat out of the backfield, with 34 catches on the year despite missing three games. Little’s versatility will have FSU linebackers on their toes especially with a few teammates out of the game.

The more important of the FSU suspensions are defensive linemen Budd Thacker and Neefy Moffett, linebacker Dekoda Watson and corner Patrick Robinson, all starters. Talented defensive players aren’t hard to find on Florida State’s roster but the losses of these starters could result in the loss of the game. Kentucky’s offense has enough firepower to outscore FSU even with those players in the lineup. Linebackers Geno Hayes and Derek Nicholson will be the two Seminoles with the opportunity to change the game. They have to neutralize the running game with only seven in the box, sometimes six, and key on Rafael Little. They can give their secondary a chance but it will all hinge on their ability to stop the pass.

Two starting offensive linemen were also suspended for the Seminoles, right guard Jacky Clause and left tackle Daron Rose. For an offense that hasn’t found it easy to move the ball despite a plethora of talent, that doesn’t help matters. Kentucky’s defense won’t scare anyone but without Rose at left tackle, defensive end Jeremy Jarmon will be in quarterback Drew Weatherford’s face all day. If Weatherford isn’t playing well there’s no viable option to replace him with. Backup Xavier Lee was one of the many suspended.

Florida State will have to resurrect its running game. If running back Antone Smith isn’t at full strength from his shoulder injury, WR Preston Parker will carry the load. Parker played admirably against Maryland, running for 143 yards and a touchdown but was shut down by Florida in the final game of the year. If either back can get into a rhythm there won’t be much on the Kentucky side of the ball to stop them. Linebacker Wesley Woodyard is one of the best in the SEC but someone else needs to step up to give their offense some breathing room. Parker playing in the backfield means someone else will have to make catches at WR. He leads the team with 54 catches. Weatherford, wide receivers De’Cody Fagg and Greg Carr will need to stretch the Kentucky defense or they won’t keep up.

This would have been an excellent football game if Florida State had its full complement of players. Unfortunately they may not be able to withstand the offensive onslaught Kentucky can bring to the table. I expect Andre Woodson to light up the FSU secondary. Though the Seminoles might put some points on the board, it won’t be enough. Andre Woodson finishes his career at Kentucky in fine form.

Prediction:
Kentucky 41 – Florida State 31

Sun Bowl Preview: Oregon vs. South Florida

Brut Sun Bowl
Dec. 31, 11 a.m. PST
Oregon (8-4) vs. South Florida (9-3)
El Paso, Texas
Payout: $1,900,000
Spread: South Florida – 6.5

At the half-way-point of the year, this could have been the national championship game. But neither could live up to those lofty expectations.

Oregon is a different football team without quarterback Dennis Dixon. His ability is magnified by the spread offense the team runs. Without his athleticism at QB, the Ducks have found their way to the Sun Bowl instead of a BCS bowl. It’s a testament to how important the quarterback is to the spread offense. The season is in two pieces for Oregon, with Dennis Dixon (8-1) and without him (0-3).

South Florida was disappointed some with their three-game losing streak after climbing to No. 2 in the polls but this isn’t a No. 2 caliber team. The three loses were all to good football teams as Rutgers, UConn and Cincinnati will all be in bowl games. This season was still a big step for the young program and they’ll get their first 10-win season if they beat Oregon.

The USF defense will destroy a Dixon-less Oregon offense. Future NFL running back Jonathan Stewart may be the Ducks only chance. He’s run for over 1,400 yards and 10 TD’s this year. He’s 230 lbs and has game breaking speed. If there’s one player the strong USF defense will have trouble with, it’s Stewart, but expect the defense to be ready for him and stack the box with defenders accordingly. If they can force him to move laterally along the line of scrimmage and string out plays to the sidelines, they may just bottle him up. Oregon won’t have much success through the air, making Stewart’s contributions all the more important. USF corners Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams are two of the best in the country. The speed of Oregon’s WR’s won’t bother them much, especially if the Oregon QB (either Cody Kempt or Justin Roper) can’t get them the ball.

Because of their anemic offense, the Duck defense will have to win this game for UO. They’ll have their hands full with freelancing USF quarterback Matt Grothe. He is a capable runner but he tends to press and force the issue when the team is struggling. If the Ducks can get out in front early then their athletic defense will be able to keep them out in front. If they don’t South Florida will be able to burn clock with a newfound running back in Mike Ford. He’s only a freshman even though he signed with Alabama out of high school in 2005. In the past three games he’s taken the bulk of the carries and run for over 300 yards with six TD’s. Oregon uses a 4-2-5 alignment defensively and it can be inviting for a good running game. Ford should have a big game. Corners Walter Thurmond and Jarius Byrd can’t get beat deep. It’s important for this team to put USF in third and long situations and get off the field when they can. Oregon’s offense will need every possession it can get if they’re going to win this game.

I expect turnovers and a lot of them. The Oregon defense knows they can’t give up an inch and they’ll keep this game low scoring. If South Florida controls time of possession they’ll win this game. Oregon needs someone on offense to take the burden off of Stewart or it won’t be close.

Prediction:
South Florida 17 – Oregon 10

Armed Forces Bowl Preview: Air Force vs. Cal

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Dec. 31, 9:30 a.m. PST
California (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
Fort Worth, Texas
Payout: $750,000
Spread: California – 3.5

If there’s a more difficult game to gauge I haven’t found it. Cal comes in reeling. They’ve inexplicably lost six of their last seven while their opponents from the Air Force academy have done the exact opposite, finishing the season winning six of their last seven. The Golden Bears had a similar collapse last season and rebounded to win their bowl game over a solid Texas A&M team. But this is a collapse of epic proportions. It’s up there with the New York Mets for worst finish of the year. Remember, if backup QB Kevin Riley had managed to spike the ball in the dieing seconds against Oregon State, California may have been ranked number one the following week. Now they sit at 6-6, one loss away from a record under .500.

Air Force comes in with a different mind set. While Cal is trying to salvage their season, the Falcons are happy to be bowling for the first time in five years. Notching their first bowl win since the 2000 season would put this program back on the map. First-year head coach Troy Calhoun has done a great job of adding more passing to the triple option scheme the school became known for running. The misdirection the offense brings is an equalizer. Since Air Force can’t recruit the same talent that a school like Cal can, this offense levels the playing field. Against Cal they should have plenty of success with it.

The Golden Bears’ defense is very average. There are a number of players with the potential to play at the next level but they just can’t seem to put it together. Preparation will be key on the defensive side of the ball. Air Force will run all over Cal if they don’t know what to expect, especially if they don’t identify Chad Hall on every snap. He’ll line up in multiple positions and is so versatile that he leads the team in rushing and receiving. The young man only became the primary ball carrier at midseason yet he finished with 1,415 rushing yards and 14 TD’s. Cal’s defense will have to be aware of him at all times or they’ll get beat soundly in this game.

An offense with as much firepower as Cal’s shouldn’t be this unproductive. Quarterback Nate Longshore has the size and the arm to play Sunday football one day but a series of injuries set him back this year. His most explosive wide receiver also struggled through a season marred by injuries. DeSean Jackson had many people talking about him winning the Heisman Trophy after he made Tennessee look slow. Unfortunately the year turned out to be a disappointment and he was overshadowed by fellow WR Lavelle Hawkins. Hawkins was consistent and made a case for the upcoming NFL draft by picking up the slack for Jackson. Running back Justin Forsett had a nice season with 1,406 yards and 13 TD’s, proving the skeptics wrong. At just 5’8 and 185 lbs some worried about his ability to carry the load but hint to you NFL scouts, don’t bet against him. Air Force will have a problem defending the speed of Cal if they come to play, that’s a big if, however.

I want to pick Air Force. Considering the seasons these two teams have had, the Falcons should win the game. But I went against Cal after their collapse last season only to have reinforced for me that bowl season is a separate entity from the regular season altogether. With the collection of talent they have, there’s no way they should lose this game. Then again, there’s no way they should’ve lost six games this year. Since Cal’s flakiness has me flustered I’m going the other way but very skeptically. Apparently I didn’t learn my lesson last year.

Prediction:
Air Force 21 – Cal 20

Chick-fil-A Bowl Preview: Auburn vs. Clemson

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Dec. 31, 4:30 p.m. PST
Auburn (8-4) vs. Clemson (9-3)
Atlanta, Georgia
Payout: $2,900,000
Spread: Clemson – 2

Auburn is making a run at the 2008 SEC championship. It started with the hiring of Troy offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. The in-state hire comes after former OC Al Borges “resigned” at the end of the regular season. Franklin brings the popular spread offense to Auburn and the potential for a scary team next season. Since 2008 starts now, why not get a head start. Backup quarterback Kodi Burns, a true freshman, is a perfect fit for the new offense. Senior starter Brandon Cox has been a solid player for Auburn in his three years as a starter but has done nothing spectacular. Burns’ role has been limited to running the ball, with the exception of the Mississippi State game where he threw 12 passes in relief of Cox. Any experience he gains against a tough opponent in Clemson would give the entire team a leg up on next season. The passing game hasn’t been very effective and a move to the spread offense will give Clemson fits defensively.

When Clemson played Virginia Tech earlier this season, freshman Tyrod Taylor was at the helm for the Hokies. He ran for over 100 yards in that game guiding the Hokies to a 41-23 victory over Clemson. Burns gives Auburn a similar edge in athleticism at the quarterback position. With Clemson starting linebackers Nick Watkins and Tramaine Billie both ruled ineligible for this game, look for a confused and overmatched Clemson defense to struggle when Auburn employs its new spread look. Clemson’s third starting linebacker, Cortney Vincent, was arrested for drunk driving and his status is currently unknown.

The Auburn offense has enough talent at running back to shuttle them in and out of the lineup without much of a drop off to keep the pressure on Clemson while running the ball out of the spread look. Even if they don’t go fully into the new offense they should have plenty of success on the ground with Clemson’s woes at linebacker. Clemson’s secondary is a good one but the more success Auburn is able to have on the ground, the more they’ll get caught looking into the backfield. Whoever is in at quarterback for Auburn won’t have to complete a high percentage of passes, just enough to allow for some explosive plays to break the game open. Auburn’s defense won’t allow for this game to get into a shootout.

Clemson’s offense has the most impressive tandem of running backs in the country. Junior James Davis and sophomore CJ Spiller are too talented and too important to this team to be as invisible as they’ve been this season. The two backs will have to win this game for Clemson. Davis and Spiller moving the sticks will do wonders to open up the passing game for quarterback Cullen Harper. If Auburn doesn’t have to respect the two runners, Sen’Derrick Marks and a healthy Quentin Groves will tee off on the pass rush and Clemson has had difficulties protecting the quarterback this season. Harper has been sacked 29 times. The speed of Auburn’s defense will cause problems for Clemson but wide receiver Aaron Kelly, at 6’5, is a match-up nightmare. If Harper has enough time to find him they can win this game.

With a number of defensive players out for Clemson, it’s also an opportunity for them to build towards next season. Watkins and Billie were the only senior starters on the defense. Their replacements, most likely Scotty Cooper and Kavell Connor, need to use this time wisely. If the rest of the defense stays away from the NFL draft it will be a force in the ACC and maybe it’s the year Tommy Bowden finally wins the conference.

If Auburn has had enough time to school the team on the fundamentals of the spread offense there’s no doubt it will be very valuable against Clemson. If they try to force it into the game plan without sufficient preparation time, Clemson’s defense will force turnovers. This has the potential to be one of the best games of the entire bowl season. Auburn can’t afford to get behind if the offense struggles, but I think their defense will win this game.

Prediction:
Auburn 19 – Clemson 14

The Streak is Over

It can be hard to accept, but the Canadian 20-game winning streak at the IIHF World Junior Hockey Championships ended today with a 4-3 loss to a tenacious Sweden team.

Credit the Swedes with playing an aggressive, in-your-face style of hockey combined with lucky breaks and being offensively creative in their win.  They were full value for their efforts.

As shocking as this loss was for Team Canada and its fans, aside from the fact that Sweden scored the game-winning-goal with just seven seconds remaining in regulation off of a quick sequence of offensive and defensive breakdowns, was that Craig Hartsburg’s crew played their worst period of hockey since the 2004 gold medal game against the U.S.A.  Canada lost that game 4-3 and settled for a silver medal.

Uncharacteristic of their style of play in the last three tournaments and the first two games of this tournament, Canada fell apart in the third period and allowed four goals in just under 15 minutes.  Three of those goals were scored just four minutes apart.

Every player on Team Canada, goaltender Jonathan Bernier included, needs to take responsibility for this loss.  In the third period, after taking a 2-0 lead and looking like the game was in control, Canada let the Swedes off the hook. 

To put some perspective on this loss, there are two things that need to be stated.  The first thing is that the old rule that ‘all good things eventually come to an end’ is as consistent as gravity.  Canada’s streak of 20 wins in a row had to come to an end today.  The second perspective to take on this loss is that losing to Sweden in the round robin is far more tolerable as opposed to losing to Sweden or another country in the same fashion in the gold medal game.  Not to say that losing should be tolerated by Hockey Canada, but what is worse?

Team Canada can look at this loss and accept two things.  One is that this year’s team now realized that they are no longer invincible and can use what happened today as motivation to elevate their game to a level that will win them gold.  As good as their game had been previous to today’s third period, it was looking like Canada’s play just wasn’t at a gold medal level compared to years past.

Today’s loss was shocking and disappointing for sure, but all is not lost.  First, this loss happened in the round robin and will cost Team Canada a bye into the semi final of the tournament at the most.  This loss, as bad as it seemed, can be used for motivation and will help the coaching staff re-figure their game plan en-light of the exposed mistakes that were made today against a well-deserving Sweden team.

Canada still has life.  Now, they have to move on to the next game against Denmark and play the game as if it were against the U.S.A. or Russia so the team removes the temptation to get into bad habits.

For Team Canada, it is time to wake up and they just got a rude wake up call from a strong opponent from Sweden.

Nappin’ On The Job

The Ottawa Senators are mired in controversy right now.

No, they haven’t lost seven games in a row, in fact they have won three games in a row and have gone 8-1-1 in their last 10 games.

The controversy stems with their $3.1 million per year goalie Ray Emery and his recent antics of late, which include showing up late to practice due to an apparent illness that was specified today as being a case of just sleeping in.

For those who aren’t up to par with medical journals, laziness -which is what sleeping in and being late for practice is- isn’t an illness, but it can be a cancer to a hockey team.

Emery, for lack of a better term, is a character.  He has flair and a huge chip on his shoulder and that is evident with his out-of-this-world suits and his swagger on and off the ice.  He likes the attention.  It may suitable to say that he is the Sean Avery of goaltending. 

So far this season, Emery has played in only 12 games compared to 58 games last year and has put up a record of 5-3-3 and a below average save percentage of .891, compared to now No. 1 goalie Martin Gerber who has an 18-5-1 record and a SV% of .926.

It is understandable how Emery can be frustrated, but the problems go beyond just lack of playing time.

It has been well documented about Emery missing flights and getting in car accidents on his way to games.  What does all this mean?  It means that his head simply isn’t on hockey like it should be, especially for a goalie that led the Senators to the Stanley Cup finals last year and a goalie that is frustrated by his lack of playing time, despite being out-played for that playing time by Gerber.

Emery is a good goaltender when he wants to be.  He has great athleticism and is a competitor when it counts, but his attitude has to change.  It doesn’t matter if your Emery, Roberto Luongo, Todd Bertuzzi or the retired Steve Yzerman, you have to get up every morning, go to the rink and work your bag off each and every day to get playing time and most importantly of all; to win.

The Sens back-up goalie is lucky he has God given talent enough to even play in the NHL and the way he acts, it could be easily taken away from him with one more act like sleeping in.  If he had’ve slept in and been late for work at any other job, he would’ve been fired on the spot and not simply sent home.

What Emery did by sleeping in was childish and disrespectful to his teammates, his coaches, his team and the fans of the Ottawa Senators and this goalie needs a severe shot in the head and a change of attitude if he wants playing time, to win and respect from his teammates and around the league.

Independence Bowl Preview: Alabama vs. Colorado

PetroSun Independence Bowl
Dec. 30, 5 p.m. PST
Alabama (6-6) vs. Colorado (6-6)
Shreveport, Louisiana
Payout: $1,100,000
Spread: Alabama – 3.5

2007 didn’t go the way Alabama had hoped when they signed Nick Saban to that monster contract under a cloud of scrutiny nearly a year ago. Losing the final four games of the season is inexcusable at Alabama, losing to Louisiana-Monroe usually brings out the pink-slip. The Crimson Tide will get measurably better under Saban eventually but right now their 6-6 record has some enraged. Losing to Colorado can’t happen. Two consecutive losing seasons for the Tide and I’m afraid the state might implode.

With a month to prepare, who would you rather have coaching your team than Nick Saban? He’s got a talented team that oddly didn’t show up down the stretch. It’s almost as if the close loss to LSU unraveled the team. If the team is back on track, they’re one of the best teams in the SEC and there’s no reason they can’t blow Colorado out of the water.

When the Alabama offense was clicking early in the year, it was a thing of beauty. Quarterback John Parker Wilson and wide receiver DJ Hall put on an aerial show while freshman running back Terry Grant opened the season with 400 yards in his first three games. They should have had plenty of time to think about what they were doing wrong to regroup and bring back the magic they had in the early season. Colorado’s defense has talent but it won’t be nearly consistent enough to keep Alabama out of the end zone. It will be too easy for the Tide to scheme around linebacker Jordon Dizon and cornerback Terence Wheatley. Defensive tackles George Hypolite and Brandon Nicolas need to be disruptive in the backfield if they’re going to have any chance in this game.

Colorado hasn’t been relevant for a while, but they’re getting there once again. Head coach Dan Hawkins is rebuilding the program from scratch. His offense will be one of the best in the Big 12 in the near future. His son Cody, just a freshman and only 5’11, is the quarterback. By the time he leaves Colorado they will be contending for the Big 12 crown. He has been asked to throw the ball a lot this season and it has seen mixed results. Against an athletic Alabama secondary the windows will tighten up and he has to be concerned with turning the ball over.

Ball security will be important for a Buffaloes team that looks slightly overmatched. If they can establish the run and keep the ball in the hands of running back Hugh Charles, maybe they can wear down the Tide defense. He’s really only seen significant action in nine games this year and has run for 989 yards and 8 TD’s. The Tide will most likely stack the box against him and force Hawkins to pass. If he throws any interceptions the game will rest with the Alabama offense.

There’s really no telling how they will react after the late season collapse and long layoff but when the Tide are on their game they can play with the best of them. The bowl season is almost a separate entity from the regular season so we may see a completely different Alabama team from the final few weeks of the year. Remember they only lost by a combined 10 points to Georgia and LSU, the conference’s two BCS bids. While Colorado definitely has a chance to put up some points on offense, if their defense can’t come through with a stellar all around performance, Alabama will roll.

Prediction:
Alabama 35 – Colorado 24

Burnaby Joe Out for Months

Not having their captain for the past 12 games, the Colorado Avalanche will have to continue to play without Joe Sakic for most of the remaining season.

This news comes out of the Mile High City after the Avs learned yesterday that Sakic will undergo hernia surgery. So what does this mean for Colorado?

Sakic has 22 points so far this season, and has been a main part of the Avalanche’s attack every year he’s been on the team. Known has the player with the deadliest wrist shot in the NHL, the Burnaby native will only be able to lead his team off the ice.

“After consulting with the doctors we believe this procedure will enable me to return to the lineup,” stated Sakic in a release.

I’m sure the whole Colorado organization is looking forward to that day. 

However, even with the captain’s absence the past dozen games, Colorado still remains one of the top teams in the Northwest Division, alongside Vancouver and Minnesota. If they can continue to carry on winning without Sakic, then the surgery won’t be a problem. But in order to do so, Colorado must call upon it’s other scorers to step up.

The top offensive go-getter so far this season is sophomore Paul Statsny, who leads the team in goals (15), assists (28), points (43) and plus/minus (+11). Injuries to Milan Hejduk and Ryan Smyth throughout the season has hindered their offensive contributions, but they are still number two and three respectively when it comes to most points on the team.

Sakic is a big part of the Colorado team, and has always been a major face of this franchise. Ever since the move from Quebec, Burnaby Joe has been the heart and soul of the Avalanche. But that does not mean this team can not carry on without him.

It just might be a little bit tougher.

No longer with a guaranteed scorer and producer, the Avalanche will have to prove their depth worth and show the rest of the league that they can still compete even with a long absence of their leader. If not, Sakic’s return will likely result in assisting the team play the spoiler role, as opposed to playoff contention. 

Alamo Bowl Preview: Penn State vs. Texas A&M

Valero Alamo Bowl
Dec. 29, 5 p.m. PST
Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)
San Antonio, Texas
Payout: $2,225,000
Spread: Penn State – 5.5

Quarterback play is often the difference in college football. Even when two hard nosed defensive teams with run-based offenses get together, it’s often the quarterback that makes or breaks the game. This game should be no different.

Penn State’s Anthony Morelli never lived up to the billing but a lot of that has had to do with coaching. He has three versatile weapons in wide receivers Derrick Williams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood but the coaching staff has yet to figure out how to make the most out of their talents. Better hurry up, the three are seniors next year. Had Morelli been in a different offense there’s a chance he would be a Heisman contender but we’ll never know. His arm might go down as one of the biggest wastes of talent in school history.

Teammates feed off of Aggie QB Stephen McGee’s penchant for running the ball and tough demeanor. Again, coaching may have kept him from developing as a passer. Though a lack of capable receivers may have played a role in that, McGee doesn’t throw the ball nearly as much as he should. He has a much better arm than he gets credit for and tight end Martellus Bennett is a superb athlete. If the two can build on their chemistry for next season this has the chance to be one of the best offenses in the Big 12, if not the nation.

The quarterbacks are going to be the focal point of this game. McGee’s ability to run the ball puts the onus on PSU linebackers Dan Connor and Sean Lee to keep him contained. It’s not an easy task with a backfield that includes speedster Mike Goodson and 270 lb running back Jorvorskie Lane. Connor and Lee will have to be prepared for the misdirection they’re going to see from this offense. They can’t afford to get caught looking in the backfield to find the ball or they’ll get walled off and hit for a big play. McGee’s arm can’t be overlooked here but Penn State’s secondary is athletic enough to play man-coverage the whole game. McGee won’t have much luck going through the air unless the safeties are biting on run-action. That won’t happen if the PSU front seven can stop the run, something they’ve done well all year.

If Morelli can help sustain drives it will give the PSU linebackers enough time to rest and ensure they won’t be worn down by the rugged style the Aggies employ. Morelli is going to have to do more than sustain drives to win this game though. Getting the ball to Derrick Williams is critical in a game like this. His playmaking ability gives them a chance to score on every drive. Using him in the backfield and in more creative ways than simple reverse plays will keep the A&M defense off balance. Show them something they haven’t seen before. There isn’t much talent on the Aggie defense and they won’t be able to shut down Penn State, especially if they have to bring extra defenders into the box to stop running back Rodney Kinlaw, who’s stepped up in the absence of Austin Scott to the tune of 1,186 yards and 10 TD’s.

The coaching situation at Texas A&M has the team on uneven footing. Head coach Dennis Franchione has stepped down and the school has since hired Mike Sherman but he won’t take over until after the bowl game. Interim coach will be defensive coordinator Gary Darnell. This won’t have a major affect on the game but it can’t help the Aggies’ chances of winning.

Penn State’s advantage in talent level gives them the slight edge in this game though if it weren’t for the circumstances regarding the A&M coaching staff this game would have a chance to be a good one. The Nittany Lions should have been outclassing opponents all season long, they’ll make up for it here with a strong showing in the Alamo Bowl.

Prediction:
Penn State 26 – Texas A&M 18

Liberty Bowl Preview: Central Florida vs. Mississippi State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Dec. 29, 1:30 p.m. PST
Central Florida (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)
Memphis, Tennessee
Payout: $1,750,000
Spread: Central Florida – 3

If you haven’t seen Central Florida running back Kevin Smith play yet, youtube him. College football fans need to know something about the man challenging Barry Sanders’ single season rushing record. The single season record hasn’t been passed around like the slut the career rushing record is. This record actually has some meaning. Unfortunately though Smith isn’t quite doing in the same era Sanders did. Back then bowl games didn’t count towards your rushing total. Sanders played just 11 games that year. Smith will have played 14.

All the same, I don’t think the record will fall against Mississippi State on Saturday. The Bulldog run defense isn’t incredibly talented but they’ve certainly heard enough about Kevin Smith to want to do everything in their power to keep him from breaking the record. Smith needs 180 yards to do it and the only bowl team he put up those type of numbers against was Tulsa in the conference championship game. Some point to the success he had against Texas early in the season, but Texas has been inconsistent and Smith still ran for 149 yards, not the 180 he needs now. Smith has also been running through some massive holes thanks to his offensive line. Mississippi State won’t be a pushover at the point of attack and he’ll have to make more plays for himself than he’s used to.

The subplot here is the game itself. Mississippi State head coach Sylvester Croom has done a magnificent job in getting the Bulldogs to their first bowl game since the 2000 season. A game that holds a special place in my mind because of the snow it was played in. Now Croom looks to make his own history here in the Liberty Bowl. But as I’m sure he knows, they’ll have to stop Kevin Smith.

That’s not necessarily true. Smith will probably run for good yardage, maybe not 180 but still a solid number. If the Bulldog defense can force UCF into passing situations and consistently make tackles in front of the sticks they can win the field position battle and squeeze out a close win. Knights’ quarterback Kyle Israel has been a nice complement to Smith but hasn’t shown he can carry the team on his back for a victory. The game is going to hinge on MSU’s ability to keep UCF out of the end zone because the Bulldogs don’t have an offense that can win a game on its own. They’ll be battle tested thanks to the rugged SEC schedule and a road trip to West Virginia, so I’m sure they won’t be intimidated.

The MSU offense needs to produce. It starts with running backs Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre. Establishing the run against UCF is going to do wonders for the passing game, especially against UCF, who struggles in pass defense. They can rattle passers though and have 23 interceptions on the year, led by cornerback Joe Burnett who has six. True freshman quarterback Wesley Carroll hasn’t been the starter very long but he needs to grow up in a hurry. State is going to have to take shots downfield to their two playmakers on the outside Jaymayel Smith and Tony Burks. Staying away from Burnett won’t be possible the whole game so the two wide outs will have to be cognizant of the potential for turnovers and play defensive back at times. If they can hit the big play in the passing game it will take the pressure off their defense and potentially get UCF away from their game plan.

I think Mississippi State will be able to win this game if they win the turnover battle and get the passing game going. Central Florida is a good football team. They’re well coached and have some talent but they wouldn’t last in the SEC, this MSU team has. Sly Croom deserves all the coach of the year honors he can get and this team deserves the Liberty Bowl win.

Prediction:
Mississippi State 23 – Central Florida 16